Integration of the Water Evaluation And Planning System Model with the Nash Bargaining Theory for Future Water Demand and Allocation in the Kabul River Transboundary Basin under Different Scenarios

Mohiq Khalid1

Muhammad Waqar Saleem1

Muhammad Rashid1

Pakorn Ditthakit2,Email

Uruya Weesakul3

Manop Kaewmoracharoen4

1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan.
2Center of Excellence in Sustainable Disaster Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat 80161, Thailand.
3Thammasat University Research Unit in Climate Change and Sustainability, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand.
4Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand.

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive examination of the water supply and demand dynamics within the Kabul River basin, a region of critical geopolitical importance due to transboundary water issues. This study highlights the complexity of transboundary water disputes and cooperation and proposes a novel approach to equitable water sharing among transboundary river basins between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This research examines the escalating water scarcity in the Kabul River basin using the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP) model and the Nash Bargaining solution. A range of scenarios was conducted by considering several factors, including population growth and agricultural expansion, to predict future water allocation in the transboundary Kabul River basin. The results indicate that as demand increases and supply remains constant, unmet water demand will ultimately increase, such that significant water shortages are projected in the future if both countries continue to rely on agricultural expansion. Nash's Bargaining solution accomplished this demand-supply gap theory and addressed the issue of water allocation between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The theory presents a unique solution that distributes resources equally between actors, considering their demands. The findings indicate that water allocation could decrease to 49% for Afghanistan and 61% for Pakistan by 2040 under conditions of severe water scarcity.

Integration of the Water Evaluation And Planning System Model with the Nash Bargaining Theory for Future Water Demand and Allocation in the Kabul River Transboundary Basin under Different Scenarios